The inauguration of the newly elected president of the United States, Donald Trump, is scheduled for January 20, 2025. That day will mark the beginning of his second term.
By: Corresponsalía lapatilla.com
Trump’s return to the US presidency, after serving in office between 2017-2021, keeps the world in suspense and Venezuela is no exception.
According to international analyst and journalist, Alejandro Linares Mendoza, there are two likely scenarios that could arise in Trump’s second administration regarding Venezuela.
The first is that the US president recognizes Edmundo González Urrutia as President of Venezuela, similar to what he did in 2019 with former deputy Juan Guaidó as “interim president,” which could generate a cascade effect, leading other countries to do the same. This would result in political and diplomatic isolation, added to the economic and commercial “asphyxiation” against Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
The second scenario, commented Linares Mendoza, is that Trump does not recognize González Urrutia as president, but chooses to approach Nicolás Maduro to establish direct dialogue.
“The elections were on July 28th, August, September, October have passed, we are in November, we are almost four months away from the presidential election in Venezuela and in all this time, neither as a candidate nor as president-elect, Trump has spoken about the election in Venezuela, nor has he hinted whether or not he will recognize Edmundo González as President of Venezuela. “So, Trump’s silence regarding the result of the election in Venezuela and regarding whether or not he will recognize Edmundo González is an element that must be taken into consideration and that makes me pressume that Trump might not recognize Edmundo González,” argued Linares Mendoza.
In addition to this, the international analyst pointed out that another element that could indicate that Trump is inclined to promote conversations with Maduro is that it is not the first time that the American president opens a direct communication channel with a leader with a controversial profile. He recalled that during his first presidency, Trump had direct conversations with Kim Jong-un, who is an ally of Russia, and a communist dictator accused of violating human rights. “So, if he already did it with Kim Jong-un, who has an even higher profile than Nicolás Maduro, why couldn’t he do it with Nicolás Maduro?” he said.
Biden administration recognizes González Urrutia as “president-elect”
On Tuesday, November 19th, Antony Blinken, Secretary of State of the Joe Biden administration, formally recognized González Urrutia as the “President-Elect of Venezuela” and asked to respect the will of the voters who went to the polls on July 28th.
“The Venezuelan people spoke out forcefully on July 28 and named Edmundo González President-Elect. Democracy demands respect for the will of the voters,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken through his social network accounts.
Faced with this, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Yván Gil, expressed his repudiation of Blinken’s statement. “In the last days of his government, he should dedicate himself to reflecting on his failures, getting rid of imperial and colonial complexes and going to write the memoirs of how the Bolivarian revolution made him bite the dust of defeat, just like his predecessors,” said Gil.
International analyst Linares Mendoza pointed out that with this decision, the direct communication channels that the US and Venezuela had maintained months ago are closed.
However, he underscored that, regardless of the decision taken by the Biden administration on Tuesday, he does not rule out the two scenarios that could occur regarding Venezuela, when Trump takes office on January 20th, 2025.
“On January 20th, 2025, Joe Biden leaves the presidency and Donald Trump is sworn in and takes office, and from there we will know for sure what Donald Trump’s policy will be, his administration’s regarding Venezuela,” he reiterated.
While it is true that uncertainty is currently setting the tone for Trump’s foreign policy towards Venezuela, both Edmundo González and María Corina Machado, leader of the Venezuelan opposition, as well as Nicolás Maduro, have sent him messages regarding his recent electoral victory.
“In his first government, re-elected President Donald Trump, things did not go well for us. This is a new beginning for us to bet on a win-win and for things to go well for the United States and for things to go well for Venezuela,” said Maduro on November 7.
For his part, González Urrutia congratulated Trump for his victory in the elections. “The American people have expressed their sovereign will, reaffirming the value of institutions, the democratic spirit and the strength of the alternation that reinforces confidence in the electoral and political institutions of representative democracies,” added González Urrutia, who is currently exiled in Spain.
“President Trump, the democratic government that we Venezuelans elected on July 28th (…) will be a reliable ally to work with your administration for the well-being of our people,” added Machado.
Among the announcements made by President Donald Trump, the nomination of US Senator Marco Rubio as the next US Secretary of State stands out.
Rubio has maintained a tough position with China and Iran, and continued sanctions on Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.
According to Linares Mendoza, Rubio’s nomination as future Secretary of State is more due to the policy that Trump wants to develop with respect to China and Iran, than to the policy he wants to exercise towards Latin America.
He explained that in the case of China, Trump and Rubio agree that tariffs should be used to make imports from that country more expensive, with the aim of making those operations difficult and favoring local US producers.
On the other hand, he said that both officials agree that Iran should be sanctioned for its nuclear program.
“Around 2015 when former President (Barack) Obama signed the nuclear agreement with Iran, one of the main critics of that agreement was Marco Rubio. Then, in 2018, when Trump pulled the US out of that agreement, one of the first to applaud the decision was Marco Rubio. Why? Because Rubio and Trump agree that the issue of the Iranian nuclear program and the possible threat that this nuclear program represents for the world, especially for the Western world, should not be resolved with negotiations or agreements, but with sanctions,” Linares Mendoza recalled.
However, the international analyst stressed that this does not mean that Rubio does not look towards Latin America, since as the son of Cuban immigrants, he has the moral obligation to focus on what is happening in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
What will happen with the sanctions?
Whether or not to continue with the process of easing oil and gas sanctions against the government of Nicolás Maduro that the United States government, headed by Joe Biden, started after the signing of the Barbados agreement in 2023, is tied to the decision that Trump makes in his second term regarding the relationship with Venezuela.
Linares Mendoza pointed out that if the president-elect of the United States recognizes González Urrutia as President of Venezuela, the policy of imposing sanctions will most likely be resumed.
“Having Trump as President of the United States and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, it is possible that we will see a restitution of those sanctions that have been relaxed. Unless Trump decides to talk directly with Maduro and then, in that case, they would handle the issue of the relaxation or reinstatement of sanctions with kid gloves,” he stressed.
He added that if Trump decides to take the path of restoring sanctions, he could have two strategies: the first, to weaken Maduro’s government in order to later recognize González Urrutia as president; and the second, to exercise a policy of “maximum pressure” against Maduro so that he feels “against the ropes” with the intention of encouraging them to negotiate.
Economic Overview
Although the US and the European Union have said that the economic sanctions are not against Venezuelans, but are aimed at Nicolás Maduro and his cabinet, and what they seek is to financially break the government, the international analyst commented that these measures could affect the Venezuelan economy.
He argued that this could happen because in Venezuela there is no separation of institutions and many state companies are managed by Maduro and his entourage, so any sanction imposed would affect their operation.
According to official figures, in October 2024 oil production in Venezuela reached an average of around 980,000 barrels per day (bpd), a figure that represents an increase compared to the 786,000 bpd of the same month in 2023.
Linares Mendoza said that of the more than 980,000 bpd, Chevron, a company that has a presence and activities in Venezuela thanks to a special license, produces around 200,000 bpd. “If sanctions are reinstated, obviously Chevron would have to leave Venezuela and that means that overnight, Venezuela would stop producing 200,000 barrels a day, which would make Venezuelan oil production fall from 980,000 to 780,000 barrels a day,” he said.
He said that this drop in oil production, added to the difficulties in selling Venezuelan crude oil as a result of the sanctions, could translate into less income for the country and lead the Venezuelan economy to a possible contraction.
Immigration policy
During his election campaign, Trump was emphatic in his will to apply strict measures against illegal immigrants, which raised alarm bells among Venezuelans and Latinos in the US.
Given this, the international analyst considered that if the US president were to negotiate with Maduro’s regime on something related to the immigration issue, it would be the deportation of undocumented Venezuelans.
“Like Joe Biden, Trump would negotiate with the Maduro administration to have Venezuela accept the return to Venezuelan soil of undocumented Venezuelan migrants,” he added.